|By Yakov Fain||
|December 10, 2007 02:30 AM EST||
2007 was a good year. The IT job market was stable. Mankind got an iPhone. While there were not any revolutionary changes in the way software was developed, I believe that this was a year of rich Internet applications and Web 2.0. YouTube became a part of the lives of millions of people around the world. A large portion of the population visits use MySpace and Facebook daily.
What's next? What language/tool/technique to learn? What's the next big thing in IT? In my opinion…
1. Java will remain strong in large enterprises, but will continue losing ground as a development platform for small businesses. J2EE is way too heavy, and scripting languages and frameworks offer an alternative and productive way of software development when the cost of development is more important than performance and scalability. The LAMP platform will remain a preferable way to develop applications for small to medium businesses.
3. Speaking of Web 2.0… Even though Web 2.0 was not officially defined, I think it’s all about giving more control to the users of the Web sites. The more interactive a Web site is, the higher the number people will put in front of the zero – 3.0, 4.0, and so on. Some people say that Web 3.0 is about Semantic Web. If you bought a grill on Amazon.com, they can guess with high probability that you might be shopping for rib-eye steaks. Check it out the next time you visit the site. It’s all about control. From the user’s side and from the vendor’s side. We’ll see more and more interactive sites next year. While some people are planning to write next-generation sophisticated software, others will come up with a very simple, easy-to-implement but appealing business idea, and the next 20-year billionaire is born.
4. Flash Player will remain the best deployment platform for rich Internet applications. While Microsoft is trying to come up with a competitive delivering platform for RIA, it’s not going to happen in 2008. Silverlight 1.0 is a good start, the next version (1.1) will be even better, but it’ll take time to release a product that can do more than streaming multimedia.
5. Ruby on Rails will take a small share of the market of small non-mission-critical Web applications. Convention over configuration. Speed of development over performance. While Ruby on Rails will not become a framework of choice, it has achieved a very positive result – people have started to realize that not every project has to be developed in either Java or .NET. Besides, RoR is a well-designed framework that will become a good design sample for the new frameworks of the future.
6. Internet video will be booming and I’m not talking about YouTube. Internet Video will start being a part of a number of enterprise applications. This process won’t be fast, and you have an opportunity to be among the early adopters in this sector.
7. Outsourcing will gain more and more ground despite the fact that it’s very expensive and the project failure rate is high. The reason is that the U.S. has almost stopped producing software engineers. It’s just a matter of time before everyone gets used to the fact that business software is made in India, just like we all know that all toys (with or without lead) are made in China. But innovation in software will still be happening in America. I guess, there’s something in the air here. Re-read an old but valid article by Paul Graham about why Silicon Valley can’t be exported.
8. Apple - next year I’ll finally purchase a MacBook Pro for myself… if my Sony Vaio will die. Even if it won’t die, having a two-year-old machine is a good excuse for submitting a purchase order to my wife for approval. Peer pressure, a cool design and the ability to run Windows (plan B),will force me to ignore the high price.
10. Telephony. If 2007 was the year of Skype, we’ll see some interesting development in this area. Skype is a great product, but it requires you to download and install software. In the era of RIA, things can be done without it. Watch the Ribbit phone software that will allow you to make calls and receive e-mails just from your Web browser.
11. IT job market in the USA. While we’ve enjoyed a stable demand for IT professionals in 2007, it won’t last and next year we’ll see project freezes and even layoffs. The reason is the burst of the real estate bubble. This will affect not only those simple people who were brainwashed and decided that they could have afforded an American dream. CEOs of major Wall Street corporations are being fired after drowning their companies by getting into bad mortgage debt. Among other things, the IT budget will be severely cut. As you know, today on Wall Street, is tomorrow on Main street. Use the training budget of your employer now if it’s not too late. Keep your skills up to date.
13. The next big thing. Software development will change to a wider use of code generators. Forget about heavy frameworks, regardless of what programming language you use. In a simple case, use some XML style sheets combined with the metadata that describes your application objects to automatically generate the code for these objects. On a larger scale, the entire application may be described using metadata and XML, and an appropriate code generator will do the job. So programming will change from writing tedious code that requires lots of coders to describing the metadata and writing custom code generators.
Happy New Year!
|cjmurphy 11/04/08 12:09:34 AM EST|
A good framework will allow 'structural' (ie meta-data, XML config files...) changes to be made at run time. Which procludes code-generation. I certainly hope that the dominant framework of the future has as little as possible code generation. I imagine it would be domain-driven and independent from the view to such an extent that a 'UI toolkit' could just be plugged in. Imagine the same code running as a Swing application or say a GWT application. Take a look at www.strandz.org
|Joachim Van der Auwera 05/16/08 11:20:11 AM EDT|
I agree that code generation can be very important for relieving a couple of the challenges of building reliable, consistent applications in a minimum amount of time.
There will be an interesting mixing of compile-time and runtime generation.
What's more, it already exists. There have been frameworks which generate large parts of enterprise applications for a long time. Most of them are probably in-house frameworks, but there are a few "in the wild". Examples are Lyria (commercial), OpenXava (open source) and equanda (open source)
|steve ballmer 01/12/08 09:20:50 PM EST|
Hey! You forgot to mention how SilverLight will displace Flash!
|reynout 12/30/07 01:17:56 PM EST|
for number 13: Websphere Portlet Factory = code generator tool for webservices, portlets, servlets, etc..
|rs.ramaswamy 12/17/07 09:11:54 AM EST|
Excellent article. Thank you.
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